EDB Forecasts 8.1% Economic Growth for Tajikistan in 2026

Dushanbe, The Gulf Observer: Analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) have projected that Tajikistan’s economy will grow by 8.1% in 2026, closely aligning with the government’s target of at least 8.0%, according to the bank’s March 2026 Macroeconomic Review.

The report attributes the anticipated growth primarily to strong domestic consumption and rising investment, supported by steady income from exports. Favorable global prices for key export commodities, particularly gold, are expected to sustain high levels of foreign trade revenue.

According to the EDB, Tajikistan’s economy continued to demonstrate robust momentum in January 2026, driven by strong consumer demand and increased investment activity. Significant capital is being directed toward the energy sector under state-led development initiatives, alongside key industrial segments including mining, metallurgy, textiles, and food production.

The latest forecast is consistent with projections issued at the end of the previous year, reflecting stable expectations for the country’s economic trajectory.

While the EDB’s outlook aligns broadly with the government’s growth ambitions, it highlights a slightly different emphasis. President Emomali Rahmon has underscored the importance of maintaining GDP growth of no less than 8%, focusing on industrialization, expanding energy capacity, strengthening processing industries, and attracting investment.

In contrast, EDB analysts identify a broader set of growth drivers, including the energy sector, manufacturing, exports of gold and base metals, as well as remittances from labor migrants. The bank also points to external factors—such as commodity prices and migration trends—as key influences on economic performance.

Despite these differing emphases, both perspectives underscore the need for sustained high growth. The EDB noted that for Tajikistan to achieve its medium-term goals of doubling GDP and reducing poverty, it must reduce its reliance on external factors and transition toward more sustainable, productivity-driven growth.

This includes fostering job creation, expanding the domestic market, and strengthening internal economic resilience to mitigate vulnerability to external shocks.