Vietnam Poised for Double-Digit GDP Growth in New Economic Cycle
Hanoi, The Gulf Observer: At the 2026 Business Forum themed “Opportunities and Strategies of GDP Growth”, economic experts expressed optimism that Vietnam is well-positioned to achieve its ambitious target of double-digit GDP growth, citing a convergence of favourable domestic and global conditions.
The forum, organised by Bizlive, brought together leading economists and policymakers to discuss strategies for sustaining Vietnam’s economic momentum in the coming decade.
Huỳnh Minh Tuấn, founder of FIDT Investment Consulting and Asset Management JSC (FIDT) and Vice Chairman of APG Securities, stated that Vietnam is entering a new phase of high growth, with an average annual GDP expansion target of 10 per cent for the 2026–2030 period.
According to Tuấn, Vietnam’s economic trajectory can be divided into three key phases: steady growth averaging 6.5–7 per cent between 2015 and 2019; a sharp slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic, when GDP growth fell to 2.9 per cent in 2020 and 2.6 per cent in 2021; and a robust recovery period from 2022 to 2024, with GDP rebounding to 8 per cent in 2022, 7.1 per cent in 2024, and projected to reach 8.5 per cent in 2025.
“From 2026 onward, Vietnam is expected to enter a high-growth cycle driven by institutional reform, increased public investment, rising labour productivity, and effective utilisation of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows shifting into the country,” Tuấn emphasised.
He noted that Vietnam’s competitive advantages include improved investment transparency, flexible governance, and deepening trade relations with major partners—particularly the United States. A comprehensive public investment plan for 2025–2030 is also expected to spur expansion in key sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, logistics, and renewable energy.
Experts at the forum underscored the central role of the private sector in driving growth. In 2025, the government issued several pivotal resolutions to foster private enterprise and innovation. Among them, Resolution 68-NQ/TW designates the private sector as a cornerstone of national development, aiming to build two million efficient enterprises by 2030, including at least 20 globally competitive firms.
Complementing this vision, the National Assembly and Government introduced targeted support measures through Resolution 198/2025/QH15 and Resolution 138/NQ-CP, offering corporate income tax exemptions for innovative startups during their first two years and a 50 per cent tax reduction for the subsequent four years.
Additionally, these policies include the establishment of the Vietnam Private Enterprise Development Fund and the expansion of green credit channels to facilitate business financing. Parallel initiatives—Resolution 139/NQ-CP and Resolution 57-NQ/TW—focus on workforce development, supporting industries, digital transformation, and startup ecosystem enhancement, all aimed at boosting productivity and global competitiveness.
Experts concluded that with strategic policy alignment, institutional reforms, and continued support for entrepreneurship and innovation, Vietnam is well on course to achieve its goal of sustained double-digit GDP growth in the coming decade.
