Indonesia Warns of Fragile Global Order, Unveils ‘Diplomacy of Resilience’

Jakarta, The Gulf Observer: Indonesia has warned that the global order is entering a more fragile and dangerous phase, marked by the erosion of international law, deepening geopolitical fragmentation, and intensifying competition among major powers.

Speaking at his annual press statement, Foreign Minister Sugiono described the current international environment as a “dangerous gray zone,” in which the boundaries between peace and war are increasingly blurred and cooperation among states is becoming more transactional and driven by narrow interests.

Against this backdrop, Sugiono announced the introduction of what he termed a “diplomacy of resilience” as a core pillar of Indonesia’s foreign policy, aimed at ensuring national survival while preserving strategic flexibility on the international stage.

“And resilience cannot be borrowed. It must be built from within. Because in an uncertain world, only a nation that is strong at home will have leverage abroad,” the foreign minister said.

He reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to its constitutionally mandated “free and active” foreign policy, which seeks to protect national interests while contributing to global peace and stability. However, Sugiono stressed that the implementation of this doctrine must evolve in response to changing global realities.

Rather than choosing sides in major power rivalries, he said Indonesia would prioritize strengthening domestic resilience and maintaining the ability to determine its own strategic direction. “For Indonesia, the choice is clear: survival requires strong national resilience, along with the capacity to chart our own course,” he added.

Sugiono noted that resilience must be dynamic, as contemporary threats are increasingly complex and overlapping, with multiple crises often unfolding simultaneously. He emphasized that Indonesia’s diplomacy must be grounded in preparedness, vigilance, realism, and the capacity to absorb pressure, manage risks, adapt to shocks, and emerge stronger.

Highlighting the direct impact of foreign policy on citizens’ daily lives, Sugiono pointed to rising food prices linked to global supply chains, unequal access to education and technology, and the protection of Indonesian nationals abroad. He said the direction of a country’s foreign policy reflects the extent to which it is present in safeguarding and improving the welfare of its people.

In the areas of sovereignty, defense, and security, the foreign minister underlined that stability cannot be taken for granted and must be actively managed, including through consistent adherence to international law.

The concept of a diplomacy of resilience has drawn mixed reactions from analysts, with some calling for clearer strategic articulation. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said Indonesia needs to better define how resilience translates into concrete foreign policy choices.

Lina Alexandra, head of CSIS’s Department of International Relations, said the concept risks remaining vague without a clear strategy. She cautioned that an overemphasis on resilience could make Indonesia overly cautious in addressing sensitive geopolitical realities and reluctant to openly acknowledge challenges involving major powers.

As a leading country in Southeast Asia, Alexandra said Indonesia should continue to play an active regional and global role, guided by clearly defined interests and its free and active foreign policy doctrine. She added that resilience should not be interpreted solely as inward-looking strength, but should also involve promoting cooperation through ASEAN, minilateral arrangements, and broader multilateral frameworks.

Alexandra cited Indonesia’s recent entry into the BRICS grouping as an example, noting that concrete contributions and ideas would be needed to ensure the forum delivers tangible cooperation rather than becoming another arena for major power rivalry.

Other analysts have taken a more favorable view of the diplomacy of resilience, describing it as a pragmatic response to a world increasingly shaped by conflict, economic pressure, sanctions, and disinformation.

Intelligence, defense, and security analyst Ngasiman Djoyonegoro said the approach reflects the realities of shifting global power dynamics and offers Indonesia an operational framework to navigate international turbulence without losing sight of long-term strategic objectives. Rather than relying on coercive power, he said Indonesia should optimize its “smart power” by leveraging networks, legitimacy, and its strategic position.

Within this framework, ASEAN remains a key instrument for building regional diplomatic resilience, alongside global platforms such as the United Nations, the G20, and BRICS. However, Djoyonegoro emphasized that effective diplomacy must be rooted in strong domestic foundations, internal stability, and clarity of national interests.

At its core, he said, a diplomacy of resilience places people’s interests at the center of foreign policy, encompassing the protection of Indonesian citizens, economic stability, and food security.

As global volatility intensifies, analysts agree that adaptation is no longer optional for states. In this context, Indonesia’s diplomacy of resilience is being presented as a compass to navigate uncertainty—aimed not at domination, but at survival, adaptation, and sustained influence in a rapidly changing world.