Beijing Resilient March – A Verdict On 2025
In a global economic landscape characterized by fragmentation, protectionist headwinds, and sluggish recovery, China’s economic performance for the fiscal year 2025 has once again defied the more pessimistic forecasts emanating from overseas observatories. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its official data on Monday, confirming that the world’s second-largest economy expanded by 5 per cent in 2025, successfully hitting the official target set by Beijing earlier in the year.
Perhaps the most significant revelation in the 2025 dossier is the definitive rebuttal of the long-standing perception that China’s economic engine is solely fueled by external demand. For years, critics have argued that Beijing relies disproportionately on flooding global markets with cheap exports to keep its factories humming. The 2025 data, however, paints a radically different picture.
According to the NBS, the combined proportion of consumption and investment in the GDP has now exceeded 80 per cent. Domestic demand has firmly established itself as the primary driver of growth, insulating the economy from the vagaries of external shocks and the increasingly volatile trade policies of the Global North.
If domestic demand provides the stability, the industrial sector provides the momentum. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry surged by 9.2 per cent, while the high-tech manufacturing industry recorded an even more impressive rise of 9.4 per cent. These figures are nearly double the headline GDP growth rate, indicating that the traditional drivers of the economy—low-end manufacturing and real estate—are being rapidly supplanted by advanced industrial capabilities.
The growth in high-tech manufacturing is particularly telling. It reflects the massive capital and policy support poured into semiconductor independence, artificial intelligence, and green energy infrastructure. The resilience of the manufacturing sector points to a deep and comprehensive supply chain that is difficult to replicate elsewhere. It represents a qualitative improvement in the industrial base, enhancing productivity and ensuring that Chinese goods remain competitive not just on price, but on technological sophistication.
By diversifying its export markets towards the Global South—strengthening ties with ASEAN, Latin America, and Belt and Road partners—China has mitigated the impact of Western protectionism. Furthermore, the sheer scale of the domestic market, as evidenced by the consumption data, has provided a critical shock absorber.
In the final analysis, the 2025 economic report serves as a corrective to the more alarmist narratives regarding China’s rise. It portrays an economy that is evolving, not collapsing. As the world moves deeper into the 2020s, China’s ability to maintain this 5 per cent cruising altitude through innovation and self-reliance will likely remain the single most important stabilizer for the global economy.
