Center for Economic Research and Reforms Forecasts 7% Economic Growth for Uzbekistan in 2026
Tashkent, The Gulf Observer: Uzbekistan’s economy is projected to grow by around 7 percent in 2026, driven by robust business activity, strengthened monetary and financial systems, expanding banking operations, industrial production and retail trade, according to the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR).
In its forecast for the first quarter of 2026, the Center noted that despite global economic challenges in 2025, Uzbekistan’s economy demonstrated resilience. By the end of 2025, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.7 percent, surpassing the previous year’s growth rate of 6.7 percent.
The Center highlighted the high accuracy of its earlier forecasts, which deviated from the actual 2025 result by only 0.2 percentage points, underscoring the reliability of its analytical methodologies.
Key Growth Drivers
Using a dynamic factors model, CERR estimates that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 will reach approximately 7 percent year-on-year.
The forecast attributes the largest contribution to business activity indicators, accounting for 3.1 percentage points of growth. The monetary and financial sectors are projected to contribute 1 percentage point, while banking transaction dynamics add 0.9 percentage points. Industrial production is expected to contribute 0.6 percentage points, and retail trade 0.3 percentage points.
Machine Learning Analysis Supports Outlook
In addition to traditional modeling, the Center applied machine learning techniques, analyzing 250 weekly indicators across 20 Google Search categories to assess economic trends.
According to this method, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 is projected at approximately 7.2 percent. Search data from January 2026 showed a 19.3 percent year-on-year increase in queries related to “Internet and Telecommunications,” a 7.9 percent rise in “Finance,” and a 5.2 percent increase in “Shopping,” reflecting heightened economic and consumer activity.
Stable and Broad-Based Expansion
A comparison of the two forecasting approaches suggests that Uzbekistan’s GDP will grow between 7 percent and 7.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
Economic expansion is expected to be supported by continued improvements in the business environment, increased financial and investment activity, development of industrial and service sectors, and enhanced efficiency in investment processes.
The Center concluded that sustained reforms and diversified economic drivers position Uzbekistan for stable and balanced growth in 2026.
