Climate Change and Catastrophic Flooding in Pakistan
Climate change is a stark reality. Pakistan is responsible for less than 1% of total global carbon emissions but is among the countries most vulnerable to the disastrous impact of climate change. The country is increasingly facing extreme heat spells, glacier melt, relentless spells of heavy monsoon rains and cloud bursts leading to heavy flooding. The catastrophic floods which have inundated vast swathes of land have dealt a devastating blow to over 33 million people, damaged millions of acres of agricultural land, and threaten the country’s economic stability. At the global level, while the international community is cognizant of the ever-growing threat from global warming, it is still reluctant to contribute financially in a meaningful manner to assist frontline states. Thus, Pakistan faces a dual challenge. On the one hand, to take wide ranging measures domestically for rescue, relief and reconstruction on account of the current flooding and to enhance its preparedness for future disasters. On the other, to play a lead role in mobilizing support for global efforts to mitigate the threat arising from climate change.
2022 Floods
The present floods in Pakistan are the worst in the country’s history and show the devastating reality of the phenomenon of climate change. According to statistics released by NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority), so far, at least 1,500 people have lost their lives, 12,728 others have sustained injuries, 750,223 livestock left dead, and 1,734,345 houses have been damaged. Due to internal displacement, more than 500,000 people are currently living in relief camps strewn across Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and Punjab. The impact of the present flooding is considerably more devastating than the 2010 flooding.
In addition, there have been massive losses to the country’s infrastructure. Over 6,000 kilometres of roads and more than 900 bridges have been damaged or washed away. A large number of villages have been wiped out, causing immense hardship for residents. Damage to road and rail infrastructure has seriously disrupted communication and transportation, especially in parts of Sindh and Baluchistan. The floods have resulted in losses of cash crops like cotton, rice and vegetables etc., raising the spectre of runaway inflation and food insecurity in the coming months. As the floodwaters begin to recede, waterborne diseases and skin ailments are afflicting the already distressed population, putting a huge strain on the overstretched healthcare system. Long-term economic losses are estimated to be more than US $30 billion and the rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure may take 4 to 5 years.
Acknowledging the scale of devastation caused by the floods, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres made a visit to Pakistan to express solidarity from 9-10 September, 2022. He stressed that an important reason for his visit to Pakistan was to “draw the attention of the international community to this climate catastrophe and to appeal for massive support for Pakistan”. He termed the devastation wrought as ‘climate carnage’, adding passionately that it was not only “a matter of solidarity but a matter of justice”. The UNSG cautioned, “Today it is Pakistan, tomorrow it can be anywhere else.” The UNSG pledged to strongly advocate ‘debt swaps’ with the IMF and World Bank — as also at the G-20 meeting — to ‘enable poor and middle-income countries, including Pakistan, to use that money to invest in climate resilience, sustainable infrastructure and green transition of their economies instead of paying back loans to the creditors’. Earlier, the Secretary General actively supported the US $160 million UN “Flash Appeal” to fund Pakistan’s Flood Response Plan, launched simultaneously in Islamabad and Geneva on 30 August 2022.
Friendly countries have also been quick to respond to Pakistan’s appeal for assistance for rescue and relief. Several dozen planes laden with tents, medicines, food supplies and other relief goods as well as cash donations have been received from — among others — China, Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, the UK, and the United States.
It is important to note that the floods of 2010 and the present floods did not hit Pakistan in a single day. The situation built up and worsened over several weeks. For example, in 2010, the flooding started from Baluchistan in the month of July, 2010. It was well after a month or so that flood waters began to inundate Sindh and South Punjab. As such, there was enough early warning to these provinces to take the necessary measures to be ready for the impending disaster. The current flooding with its delayed response is a déjà vu in many ways, although the main reason of flooding this time is extremely heavy monsoon rainfall — almost five to seven times higher than the usual amount of rainfall. The usual catchment areas did not receive very heavy rains with the result that Mangla and Tarbela dams remained below full capacity. Earlier flooding used to be caused mostly from overflowing rivers, combined with heavy monsoon rains. Despite all-out relief efforts in the present case, it is apparent that not enough preparatory measures were taken till the disaster actually struck. The experts believe that “disaster management is more about preparedness than response.”
Realising the magnitude of the disaster, the government established a National Flood Response Coordination Centre (NFRCC) in Islamabad in order to coordinate the efforts of multiple federal and provincial disaster relief authorities and relevant departments, international relief assistance from various sources, and the work of NGOs and local humanitarian and charitable efforts. Indeed, the armed forces of Pakistan — including the Army, Air Force, and Navy — have been on the forefront of saving lives, providing temporary shelter, and arranging food supplies and medical assistance for calamity-stricken populations. It is because of their professionalism that a much larger human tragedy was averted. The people of Pakistan have contributed generously to help the victims of the floods. The gravity of this disaster, however, demands more wide-ranging measures on a short, medium and long-term basis, to deal more effectively with similar catastrophes in future.
Global efforts on Climate Change
At the international level, for nearly three decades, Pakistan has been at the forefront urging the international community to agree on legal frameworks and practical measures to deal with global warming and growing challenges posed by climate change. In this context, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), concluded in 1992, provides the basic legal framework and principles for international climate change cooperation with the aim of controlling carbon emissions and global warming. To enhance the effectiveness of the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in December 1997. It committed industrialized countries and emerging economies to achieve quantified emissions reductions. The Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period was in place from 2008 to 2012 and the second commitment period was from 2013 to 2020, established by the 2012 Doha Amendment. These commitments primarily obligated industrialized nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions significantly.
In December 2015, the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change was adopted by 196 Parties at Conference of Parties (COP) 21 in Paris. Its goal is to limit average global rise in temperatures to well below 2 degrees — preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius — compared to pre-industrial levels. The Paris Agreement is hailed as a landmark in the multilateral climate change process because, for the first time, a binding agreement brought all nations into consensus on a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. Implementation of the Paris Agreement requires countries to submit their plans for climate action known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Importantly, the Paris Agreement reaffirms that developed countries should take the lead in providing financial assistance to countries that are less endowed and more vulnerable. Climate finance is essential for mitigation, because large-scale investments are required to significantly reduce emissions. Climate finance is equally important for adaptation, as significant financial resources are needed to adapt to the adverse effects and reduce the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. Pakistan played an active role in the development of these legal frameworks and is a state party to the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement.
In these international negotiations on climate change, Pakistan and many other vulnerable developing countries have consistently endeavoured to underline the principles of ‘Equity’ and the principle of ‘Common but differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities.’ However, the appeal for a Climate Fund of US $100 billion by 2020 has remained elusive. Unfortunately, the gap between rich countries and poor countries has widened further with no clear commitments on compensation for vulnerable countries hit hardest by climate change.
The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP27) is scheduled to be held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt in November 2022. Vulnerable developing countries like Pakistan must make concerted efforts to secure firm commitments for climate finance from developed countries, which have a major share in the emission of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, the countries with large carbon footprints must demonstrate and manifest a stronger will and higher standards on mitigation and adaptation.
The Task Ahead
While global action on this vital issue is of great significance, Pakistan has to significantly enhance its institutional capacity and preparedness to mitigate the impact of future climate disasters. For Pakistan, climate related catastrophes are no longer an occasional phenomenon but a real and present danger having serious implications and consequences. It is, therefore, important to take stock of the situation, clearly determine fault-lines in policy and administrative arrangements, and take all possible corrective measures to prevent incurring losses at this scale from future floods.
Furthermore, climate change disasters should not be seen in isolation, but instead have to be taken into account as part of broader development planning. For example, one of the most ignored sectors in our national planning is that of population control. At the time of its creation, Pakistan’s population was around 32 million; in 1981, it grew to over 84 million and bloated to 207.7 million in 2017 (at the time of the last census). Such population growth levels are unsustainable. Similarly, despite lip service to local governments, Pakistan does not have an effective and functional local government system. Local government systems can be an effective mechanism for early warning and better preparedness to face such disasters.
Lessons Learnt
Learning from the handling of the 2010 and 2022 floods, following recommendations are submitted:
- There should be a National Plan for Disaster Prevention and Reconstruction, with full participation of provincial governments and all stakeholders. Priority should be given to the worst affected areas.
- Building small, medium and large dams and reservoirs is a national priority not only for power generation and irrigation, but also for managing flood waters, without disturbing the ecological balance.
- There is a serious need for setting high standards for the construction of infrastructure. Highways, bridges and other infrastructure should be more resistant to damage from floods.
- In the low-lying, flat lands of Sindh and South Punjab where flood water aggregates and stagnates, drainage canals should be built and existing natural drainage systems should be cleared and dredged.
- Strict action should be taken to remove all encroachments and settlements in the course of rivers, e.g., structures and constructions obstructing the Swat River were washed away.
- Reconstruction efforts should aim for model villages, where mud houses are replaced with sustainable and durably built houses with appropriate materials, along with adequate health and educational facilities, away from flood prone areas while keeping the natural drainage system unobstructed. Construction of model villages can also lessen the risk of the pressure of unsustainable migration toward cities.
- Follow and implement the best practices adopted by other flood prone countries, including infrastructure adjustments, early warning systems, and efficient channels for swift financial relief (mobile money transfers).
- Diversions should be made to divert water during high discharge of floodwater to safeguard localities.
