Azerbaijan and the Middle Corridor: To become a Transit Route to an Economic Artery of Eurasia
With the rise in geopolitical fragmentation of countries, reconfiguration of supply-chain and increasing competition among global trade routes, geostrategic positioning has reappeared as a critical determinant of national economic performance. In the case of Azerbaijan which is an energy-abundant country that has long been dependent on hydrocarbons, the process of long-term economic sustainability is increasingly based on the ability to utilize the fact that the country occupies a unique position of being the crossroads of Eurasia. My paper discusses how the Middle Corridor, also referred to as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), has evolved and how Azerbaijan has played the central role in changing the corridor into an alternative transit route to a core artery of the East-West trade.
Azerbaijan has been a bridging point of the East and the West serving as a connection between the civilization of Asia and Europe due to the exchange of traditions, cultural values, and goods. Although oil and gas revenues are still crucial to the national economy, the dependence on hydrocarbons makes Azerbaijan vulnerable to price fluctuations and the energy transition risks on a longer term. In this respect, geographic strategic importance has become a critical aspect of economic diversification. The Middle Corridor has been developed as a calculated move to transform the spatial advantage to a sustainable economic capital.
Previously considered as an additional path to the Northern (Russia-focused) and the Southern (maritime) corridors, the TITR has acquired strategic significance during the geopolitical conflicts, sanctions policies, and increasing pressure on the resilient supply chains. The route provides a geographically shorter and politically diversified route on container freight between Europe and Asia.
Recent empirical evidence is pointing to this change. A study conducted by Rhenus Logistics, headquartered in Germany, shows that the volume of container traffic in the China-Azerbaijan-Europe route has grown by around 35-40 percent per year over the last two years, going up to around 1.5 million tons in 2022 and to around 3.2 million tons in 2024. In case of the present trends, the company estimates that by 2030, the cargo volumes across this route may be doubled.
There are various reasons behind the rapid growth of the corridor. To start with, the reorganization of the world supply chains has heightened the need to have routes that reduce the geopolitical risk. Second, there are specific investments in infrastructure that have increased the operational capacity of the main nodes, such as ports of Baku, Aktau and Kuryk. Third, the better coordination of the railways in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia has shortened transit time and also enhanced reliability.
More importantly, the Middle Corridor has turned into a back-up route to a fundamental logistics provision. A broadened port capacity on the Caspian Sea, modernization of ferry fleets and a slow-moving digitalization of the customs systems is providing a foundation to continue to grow. In case the amount of investment and coordination is kept at the current level, then throughput could easily be double in five years.
Azerbaijan occupies a strategic location in the Middle Corridor. It is the only nation in the route that directly approaches both the Caspian Sea as well as the South Caucasus transport system and it effectively acts as the logistical pivot of the corridor. The Port of Baku, the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) railway, and digital custom infrastructure investments have increased the transit capacity significantly and made delivery times shorter.
President Ilham Aliyev always has presented the Middle Corridor as a strategic axis of Azerbaijan economic policy. Recently, in public comments, he has stressed that China will be the major player of future cargo along the route. The fact that Beijing is funding the major railway projects to the Caspian Sea, especially via Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, despite the presence of very difficult mountainous terrain, is an indication of its long-term investment in the eastward freight traffic into the Caspian basin and to Azerbaijan.
Route Diversification
President Aliyev emphasized on the strategic significance of the Zangezur Corridor. In addition to reintegrating mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, the route would create another international transport way to the Western markets. Still dependent on a single route to the west, Azerbaijan would enjoy the redundancy that leads to better competitiveness, no monopolization of transport, and more flexible pricing, which is a critical factor in the landlocked economies.
Conclusion
The growth of the Middle Corridor does not only hold more promise of higher transit revenues to Azerbaijan but also economic rejuvenation of the rest of Eurasia. Connecting China, Central Asia, South Caucasus, and Europe by a robust and multifaceted path makes the region more interdependent.
With global trade still adapting to the ever changing geopolitical and economic realities, the Middle Corridor is gaining a greater acceptance as a long-term structural solution and not a short-term alternative. Azerbaijan can be confident of making its mark as an influential Eurasian logistics center with a combination of long-term investment, deliberate policies, and powerful international relationships, and turn geography into a permanent competitive edge.
