A Greener Future or a New Dependency? Rethinking Pakistan–China Green Development Cooperation
In my IR classes, we often debate whether Pakistan’s partnership with China is strategic foresight or strategic dependency. But as I studied the evolution of climate diplomacy and green development — especially under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — I realized the answer isn’t as black or white as our classroom arguments often make it. It is far more layered, shaped by geopolitics, development constraints, global climate pressures, and the delicate psychology of small-state survival in a turbulent world.
Today, Pakistan stands at a climate crossroads: ranked the 8th most climate-vulnerable country, hit by devastating floods in 2022, and trapped in cycles of food insecurity, energy shortages, and economic instability. Against this backdrop, China’s shift toward a Green Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the greening of CPEC Phase II seems timely — even necessary.
But necessary for whom? And on whose terms?
This question, I believe, is where any honest opinion on Pakistan–China green cooperation must begin.
Climate Vulnerability: Pakistan’s Crisis, China’s Opportunity
When a country becomes this climate-vulnerable, every development partnership acquires new meaning. For Pakistan, climate change is no longer a theoretical challenge — it is an existential threat. Entire regions are swinging between drought and flood; agricultural patterns are breaking down; glaciers are melting faster than ever; and millions are being pushed into climate-induced poverty.
China recognized Pakistan’s climate fragility earlier than most Western partners. While Western states often approach climate finance with heavy conditions, China positioned itself as a “development-first, climate-aligned” alternative. The narrative Beijing promotes is simple: development should not be sacrificed at the altar of sustainability, but both can progress together.
On paper, this sounds compelling.
In practice, the story is more complicated.
From Coal to Clean: The Evolution of a Green Partnership
Phase I: The Coal Reality
CPEC’s early years were dominated by a race to end Pakistan’s energy crisis. Anyone who lived through Pakistan’s infamous 12–18 hour load-shedding era knows how desperate that period was. China stepped in with coal and hydropower projects — quick, scalable, and financially feasible.
Critics called this “coal colonization,” and they weren’t entirely wrong.
Supporters argued Pakistan had no alternatives, and they weren’t wrong either.
So the truth lies somewhere in between: China’s coal investments filled a vacuum left by decades of Western hesitancy, but they also locked Pakistan into fossil dependencies.
The Green Shift: Phase II
With the launch of the Green Belt and Road Initiative (2021), China officially pivoted away from overseas coal financing — a decision that forced CPEC to evolve too.
Suddenly, we saw:
- Joint Working Groups on Green Development (2019 onward)
- Creation of the Pakistan–China Environmental Cooperation Centre (2022)
- Expansion of wind, solar, and hydropower
- Capacity-building for environmental governance
- Climate-smart agriculture technologies
- Disaster management collaboration and satellite-based flood forecasting.
These are not symbolic initiatives. They represent structural shifts in Pakistan’s development planning.
For example:
- Clean energy share rose from 34% (2015) to 45% (2023)
- Hydropower is projected to supply 37% of electricity by 2030
- Jhimpir Wind Corridor now produces 1500+ MW
- Climate-smart agriculture technologies increase yields by 18–22%
- Early warning systems under Digital Silk Road can reduce disaster losses by up to 60%
- These are real numbers with real-life impacts.
- But numbers alone cannot tell the full geopolitical story.
Hydropower: A Symbol of Cooperation or Dependency?
The hydropower partnership — including the Karot, Suki Kinari, and Kohala projects — is often praised as the model of “clean cooperation.”
Yet these projects also raise long-term concerns:
1. Debt sustainability
Most of these hydropower projects are financed through expensive loans, not grants. While they will eventually produce cheap energy, the repayment burden is significant.
2. Environmental concerns
Large dams alter ecosystems, displace communities, and create transboundary water tensions, especially in a region where river politics already shape India–Pakistan relations.
3. Ownership and control
Chinese firms, particularly China Three Gorges, dominate the sector. This concentration raises questions about strategic dependency in key infrastructure.
However, despite these concerns, one cannot deny that these projects significantly reduce emissions and ensure long-term clean energy supply — outcomes Pakistan desperately needs.
So again, the truth is complex, not ideological.
Wind, Solar, and the Promise of Energy Independence
Where hydropower creates debate, wind and solar create hope.
China’s investment in Jhimpir Wind Corridor and solar expansion in Punjab and Balochistan represents a new chapter: energy independence based on renewable sources.
Notably:
- Solar panel manufacturing is being localized
- China is helping set up renewable-powered industrial zones
- Pakistan has committed to 60% renewable electricity by 2030
This matters because Pakistan’s energy crisis is not just a technical problem — it is a political and economic one. Fossil fuel imports drain billions of dollars annually, destabilizing the rupee and fueling inflation.
If Green CPEC reduces fuel imports by even $2–3 billion a year, this becomes a structural economic correction, not just an environmental initiative.
This is why I believe renewable cooperation is where Pakistan–China relations have the greatest transformative potential.
Climate-Smart Agriculture: The Silent Revolution
Pakistan’s agriculture sector is collapsing under climate stress — floods, heatwaves, unpredictable monsoons, and water scarcity. China’s precision farming technologies, drip irrigation systems, and drought-resistant seeds offer the possibility of a silent revolution.
If yields rise by 18–22% and water use falls by 30–50%, this would fundamentally reshape Pakistan’s food security landscape.
For a country where:
- 40% of the workforce is still agricultural
- water availability is declining
- climate impacts are intensifying
This collaboration is not optional. It is necessary.
Governance, EIAs, and Environmental Monitoring: A Step Pakistan Long Avoided
For decades, Pakistan treated environmental impact assessments as bureaucratic formalities.
Now, with China’s support:
- EIAs are becoming more systematic
- Air and water quality monitoring is improving
- Environmental regulation training is expanding
Remote-sensing technologies support climate adaptation
This is where China is reshaping Pakistan’s capacity, not just its infrastructure.
And capacity is far more important for long-term resilience.
Disaster Cooperation: Learning from Pakistan’s Worst Floods
The 2022 floods were a turning point. They caused over $30 billion in losses, displacing millions and pushing Pakistan into humanitarian crisis.
In response, Pakistan and China started integrating satellite data under the Digital Silk Road for early-warning systems. The Pakistan-China Joint Center on Earth Sciences deepened glacier and flood research.
Flood forecasting used to be a neglected discipline in Pakistan. Today it is becoming a national priority — largely because China provided the tools and incentives.
For a climate-vulnerable country, this cooperation is nothing short of lifesaving.
The Bigger Question: Is Green CPEC Pakistan’s Future or Another Dependency?
Every major decision in IR boils down to one idea:
Does Green CPEC increase Pakistan’s agency its capacity to act independently and sustainably?
Or does it deepen structural dependency economic, technological, and strategic?
Based on my study, the answer depends on what Pakistan does next.
If Pakistan remains a passive recipient, relying solely on Chinese financing and technology, then yes the green transition will simply be another dependency.
But if Pakistan builds local capacity, invests in local innovation, reforms its environmental governance, and diversifies its partnerships, then Green CPEC could be the foundation of a resilient national future.
The path we choose will determine whether this partnership empowers us — or defines us.
A Shared Green Future: Idealistic but Achievable
Despite its flaws, Green CPEC presents a historic opening.
Pakistan gains:
- cleaner energy
- agricultural resilience
- disaster preparedness
- jobs and technology
- reduced fossil import bills
- improved environmental governance
China gains:
- stable ally
- geopolitical foothold
- green BRI legitimacy
- long-term strategic presence
In the best-case scenario, both countries co-create a model for **South–South green cooperation**, proving that development and sustainability can co-exist.
This possibility — this shared future — is what gives me hope.
My Verdict as a Young IR Observer
Green development cooperation between Pakistan and China is not perfect, but it is necessary, and it is one of the few climate pathways available to Pakistan that matches the urgency of our situation.
However, necessity should not mean complacency.
As Pakistan’s next generation — the one that will inherit both the climate crisis and the consequences of today’s policy decisions — we must insist on:
- greater transparency
- stronger environmental safeguards
- diversified green partnerships
- local innovation and research
- reduced dependency on external financing
- community involvement in development planning
China can support us — but it cannot save us.
Only Pakistan can do that.
Why Green CPEC Feels Like a Rare Strategic Win for Pakistan?
As a student of International Relations, I have grown up analyzing Pakistan almost exclusively through the language of crisis — energy shortages, economic instability, climate disasters, and geopolitical vulnerability. Rarely do we get to talk about policy choices that genuinely feel forward-looking. Green CPEC, in my view, is one of those rare moments where Pakistan is not merely reacting to problems but actively reshaping its future.
What makes this cooperation different is that it does not ask Pakistan to choose between economic survival and environmental responsibility. For a country like ours, that choice has always been unrealistic. Green development under CPEC acknowledges this reality and turns climate action into something practical, achievable, and economically relevant.
This is why I see Green CPEC not as an abstract policy framework, but as a strategic opportunity Pakistan has long needed.
Energy Security Through Sustainability: A Shift I Can Actually Believe In
Anyone who has lived in Pakistan understands how deeply energy insecurity affects everyday life. Load-shedding, rising electricity bills, and dependence on imported fuel are not policy debates — they are lived experiences. Studying energy security in theory is one thing; living it is another.
Green CPEC speaks directly to this reality. The expansion of hydropower, wind, and solar energy does something Pakistan has struggled to do for decades: it stabilizes our energy future.
What stands out to me most is how renewable energy changes Pakistan’s relationship with global markets. Fossil fuel dependence ties our economy to international price shocks and political crises far beyond our control. Every step toward renewable energy is a step away from that vulnerability.
As a student, I find this shift especially important because energy sovereignty translates into political autonomy. Countries that cannot meet their own energy needs struggle to make independent decisions. By investing in renewables, Pakistan is quietly reclaiming strategic space — something no IMF package or emergency loan can offer.
Green Economic Corridors: Rethinking What Development Looks Like
One of the most exciting elements of Green CPEC, at least from my perspective, is how it reimagines industrial development. Pakistan’s past industrial growth has often been chaotic — environmentally damaging, poorly regulated, and unsustainable. Green Special Economic Zones offer a different vision.
These zones are not just about factories and exports; they represent a shift toward smarter, cleaner, and more competitive growth. Renewable-powered industries, energy-efficient systems, and waste recycling practices may sound technical, but their impact is deeply human. Lower energy costs make businesses more competitive, which means more jobs and better wages.
For young Pakistanis like me, this matters a great deal. Our generation is entering a job market shaped by climate change and technological disruption. Green industries create employment that is future-proof, skills-based, and globally relevant.
In this sense, Green CPEC is not just building infrastructure — it is shaping the economic environment we will inherit.
Human Security at the Center of Cooperation
In my IR coursework, we often discuss the shift from traditional security to human security. Climate change makes this shift impossible to ignore. Floods, droughts, and heatwaves can destabilize societies just as effectively as conflict.
This is why I find Pakistan–China cooperation in disaster management particularly meaningful. The use of satellite data, early-warning systems, and climate monitoring tools transforms how Pakistan responds to natural disasters.
The 2022 floods were a national trauma. Millions were displaced, and the state struggled to cope. Knowing that early-warning systems can reduce disaster losses so significantly makes this cooperation feel less like diplomacy and more like protection.
From a human perspective, this is what international cooperation should look like: saving lives, reducing suffering, and building resilience before tragedy strikes.
Climate-Smart Agriculture: Development Where It Matters Most
Agriculture often feels invisible in policy debates, despite employing a huge portion of Pakistan’s population. As a student, I find it deeply encouraging that Green CPEC focuses on climate-smart agriculture — not just large infrastructure projects.
Chinese technologies in precision farming, efficient irrigation, and drought-resistant crops directly address the challenges Pakistani farmers face daily. Higher yields and reduced water use are not abstract benefits; they mean food security, income stability, and dignity for rural communities.
What I appreciate most about this aspect of cooperation is its inclusivity. Development is reaching beyond cities and industrial zones into rural Pakistan, where climate vulnerability is often most severe.
For a country struggling with inequality and regional disparities, this matters profoundly.
Building Institutions, Not Just Projects
One lesson my IR studies have reinforced is that development fails without institutions. Roads, power plants, and technology mean little if governance structures cannot sustain them.
This is why the institutional side of Green CPEC deserves more attention. Environmental governance training, joint impact assessments, and regulatory capacity-building may not make headlines, but they create lasting change.
By training Pakistani officials and strengthening monitoring systems, China is helping Pakistan develop its own regulatory muscles. This kind of cooperation builds confidence, competence, and long-term sustainability.
As someone studying global development models, I see this as a shift from dependency to partnership — and that distinction matters.
South–South Cooperation That Actually Feels Equal
What also resonates with me as a young student from the Global South is how Green CPEC challenges traditional development hierarchies? Too often, sustainability is framed as something imposed by developed countries — standards we are expected to meet without receiving adequate support.
Pakistan–China green cooperation offers a different narrative. It is based on shared developmental experiences, practical solutions, and mutual benefit. It does not ask Pakistan to stop developing; it helps Pakistan develop differently.
This matters diplomatically. Pakistan can now engage in global climate discussions with credibility, not just vulnerability. We are no longer only victims of climate change — we are active participants in addressing it.
Modernizing an Old Partnership for a New Era
Pakistan and China often describe their relationship as “all-weather.” Green CPEC gives that phrase contemporary meaning. In the 21st century, strategic partnerships must address climate change, sustainability, and resilience — not just security.
By expanding cooperation into green development, the Pakistan–China relationship is adapting to the defining challenge of our generation. For Pakistan, this means having a partner invested not only in roads and ports, but in long-term stability and environmental survival.
As a young observer, I see this as a necessary evolution. Alliances that do not evolve become irrelevant. This one is doing the opposite.
Why This Matters to My Generation
Ultimately, Green CPEC is not just about policy — it is about inheritance. My generation will live with the consequences of today’s climate decisions. We will face the floods, the heatwaves, the food shortages, or the resilience built in response to them.
Green development cooperation with China offers a path that is not perfect, but hopeful. It suggests that Pakistan does not have to choose between growth and survival, between development and dignity.
Conclusion: A Partnership Worth Pursuing, But With Eyes Wide Open
As a IR student, I believe in critical optimism. Green CPEC represents both opportunity and risk — both promise and caution.
If we treat it as a shortcut, it will become a trap.
If we treat it as a catalyst, it will become a transformation.
Pakistan must choose wisely.
Because the future we are building today is the climate we will live in tomorrow.
