A Shift in IAF Strategy Against Pakistan
Influenced by the claimed success of Rampage, an Israeli air-to-surface missile (ASM) used in Operation Sindoor, reportedly India desires to procure more long-range missiles from Israeli. Report suggests that Indian Air Force (IAF) is not happy with the 250 Km stand-off range of Rampage, probably because of delivery profile’s vulnerability to PAF interceptors carrying even longer-range air-to-air missiles. Recently a delegation from Indian Ministry of Defence secretly visited Israel to sign an MOU committing $ 3.76 billion for the procurement of military equipment including Israel Aerospace Industries’ Air Lora ballistic missile, Rafael Advanced Defence System’s Icebreaker cruise missiles and also manufacture them in India. The intent will have implications for so called Operation Sindoor-2, therefore, merit serious attention.
Air LORA is an advanced, fire and forget, high supersonic, air-to-surface ballistic missile having capability to carry different warheads—most suited for intended target—and Circular Error Probable (CEP) of less than 10 meters. It can receive target updates even after launch. Ease of employment, accuracy, versatility and the high survival probability against terminal defences notwithstanding, its range in excess of 400 km is certainly more attractive for IAF at this point in time.
Icebreaker a fifth-generation, autonomous, air-to-surface stealthy cruise missile, can engage stationary as well as moving targets over land and sea up to 300 km. Its imaging Infra-Red (IIR) seeker coupled with artificial intelligence guidance is an attractive feature. Open-source information is silent about its accuracy; but the IIR seekers are generally known for providing a CEP of less than 3 meters. AI’s integration with IIR provides an automatic target recognition feature. It also allows networking of multiple missiles for synchronized employment, thus helping penetration of heavily defended areas with precision.
IAF already owns a healthy inventory of ASMs such as French made SCALP, Israeli Crystal Maze and Rampage, and indigenously developed Brahmos. SCALP is high sub-sonic, stealthy, air-to-surface cruise missile designed for hardened targets. Manufacturer claims a range of 560 km, but export versions are restricted to 250 km due to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) restrictions. IIR guidance may provide a CEP of less than 3 meters, but survivability against well defended targets remains questionable due to sub-sonic speed. Crystal Maze-1/2 is another ASM on IAF inventory used for precision attacks against high-value targets. IAF owns Crystal Maze-1 also called Popeye with a reported range of 100 km, as well as Cystal Maze -2 also called ROCKS with a range of over 250 km. Rampage is yet another supersonic ballistic air-to-surface ballistic missile on IAF’s inventory with a range of 250 km. Having CEP of less than 10 meters, it is designed to engage hardened targets.
Touted as an indigenous programme, India has invested heavily in the development program of Brahmos. Inaugurated in 1998, it is a joint venture between India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya with India having 50.5% overall share. Claimed to be one of the world’s fastest cruise missiles, it can be launched from sea, land, air and even underwater. Initial range of 290 Km, has already been extended to 450 Km; and next version under development will go beyond 800 Km. Claimed CEP of less than one meter the weapon, as per Indian analysts, has revolutionised India’s strike capability. Its exact development cost is not made public, but couple of recent procurement contracts worth $ 4.0 billion and $ 2.36 billion for IAF and IN respectively, indicate the importance India attaches to this capability.
Having invested in Brahmos programme, what could be the reason for India to push for expensive Israeli ASMs. SU-30 MKI is the only IAF platform that can carry Brahmos, primarily due to its weight and size. Rafale, Mir-2000 and Tejas will be able to carry Brahmos-NG, which is being developed with much reduced weight and size, and is projected to be available by 2027-28 timeframe. Besides delays in development programme, managing French OEM’s (Original Equipment Manufacturer) cooperation, essentially required for the integration of Brahmos-NG on Rafale and Mir-2000, will be a significant challenge for India. India opting to buy Israeli missiles, already qualified for French platforms, clearly indicates that IAF quickly wants to expand and diversify its air-to-surface missile capability.
The procurements highlight a shift in India’s offensive mindset vis-à-vis Pakistan. Embarrassed in 2019 as well as 2025 due to IAF losses in air combat, India hopes to coerce Pakistan through standoff attacks on ground targets, while keeping IAF package at a safe distance from PAF interceptors. The procurements will certainly lower Indian threshold to initiate a limited-conflict against Pakistan. Recent history clearly demonstrates Pakistan’s resolve to generate a quid-pro-quo-plus. How quickly the future conflict—so called Sindoor-2—will travel north on escalation ladder, and push nuclear threshold is an important question for the experts to analyse.
