BRI: A New Age of Development or a Modern Debt Trap?
The belt and road initiative basically reshaping the global infrastructure and developmental discourse. Evolution from the mega projects to sustainability that reflects on both internal recalibration and the external pressures. Belt and road initiative launched by China in 2013 with ambitious transnational infrastructure and the developmental program of 21st century. It is initially framed as Silk Road economic belt and the 24th century maritime Silk Road, it sort to revival of ancient trade routes. Initially 6 economic corridors were formed And China positioned belt and road initiative at global public goods level. In era of recalibration at the COVID-19 time it faces debt crisis and environmental constants forced towards high quality greener, smarter and financial sustainable projects in belt and road initiative.
The major achievements in infrastructure includes transportation like China Europe railway express and standard gauge railways in Ethiopia and Kenya. Ports involve Greece Piraeus port and in Pakistan Gawadarport that is considered as the hub for South Asia and Middle East. The energy projects involve Cpec and renewable projects in Central Asia and Africa. 5G networks, fibre optic cables and e commerce expanded the digital connectivity in digital Silk Road. Belt and road initiative projects highly contributed GDP growth by improving the energy supply and logistics. Belt and road initiative projects contribute to trade expansion, social development like small but beautiful projects, Employment and environmental projects. Belt and road initiative Linked Europe, Africa and Asia through ports , highways and railways by reducing the trade cost and time.
The best example of China Europe railway express with the fast delivery time from 45 days to 15 days. World Bank says that belt and road initiative infrastructure projects can reduce the global cost of trade up to 2.2% that is beneficial for both belt and road initiative countries and non belt and road initiative countries. Another benefit is that good infrastructure and logistics have stimulated the GDP growth between partner countries like South Asia , Africa and Central Asia. The belt and road initiative also very helpful in reducing poverty by improving access to cheap markets by lowering trade costs , the projects have power to lift millions out of poverty rate. Belt and road initiative also focus on cultural and people to people exchanges and also promote tourism , educational opportunities , cultural linkages and regional cooperation.
In Pakistan CPEC, helps to reduce chronic power shortages by adding 8000 MW. It also focus on railway upgrading and connectivity between northern Pakistan and Gwadar port , Gawadar port development considered as the hub for trade and logistics because it enhance regional commerce and the maritime trade. It also assist by Water supply ,vocational training and healthcare projects. CPEC also enhance Pakistan’s role as a bridge between Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia it also enhances the employment opportunity and geopolitical significance. Belt and road initiative also face critics in face of debt sustainability like Zambia and Sri Lanka face repayment crisis , fuels to debt trap. It lacks transparency, raising corruption risk. Belt and road initiative also face geopolitical tensions like world consider it as a tool of Chinese dominance. Belt and road initiative also faces operational issues and environmental challenges as heavy coal investment contradict climate goals. Belt and road initiative will coexist with western and other regional alternatives by shaping multipolar competition it also focus on digital and health belt and road initiative with AI And telemedicine.
It also shift to green belt and road initiative and regionalization with greater focus on Africa. The greatest strength of belt and road initiative lies in the ability to deliver such hard infrastructure, that western institutions often failed to do. There is also mismatch between sustainability and ambition like Cpec showing transformative infrastructure but also show fragile results when local owner ship, debt and governance are neglected. It has strategic underpinnings as it is a tool of geopolitical investment to expand influence by securing the supply chains and countering the western led institutions Belt and road initiative prioritise Chinese commercial and the political leverage rather host country fiscal sustainability it is also seen as new colonial model of dependency.
The mega projects like power plants railways and ports outpace the local demand , Led to under utilisation , it properties the grand visible project over the pragmatic and community based driven infrastructure, like kenya’s railway reduced the travel time but still struggle with fret revenue that raises questions about cost benefit logistics . China promote green belt and road initiative while promote carbon intensive Plants and highways. Belt and road initiative undermines the global climate commitment and other country resilience with sustainability rhetoric. Belt and road initiative rely on Chinese materials , contractors and labour delimiting the local economic spillovers it creates the perception of exploitation that weakens the social licence towards operation. Without the general genuine local participation belt and road initiative seen as the extractive rather then inclusive.
Alternatives like European Union global gateway, G7 and India IMEC reflecting skepticism about the belt and road initiative governance. In the critical point of view belt and road initiative unintentionally fragment the global cooperation by creating the competition in blocks rather than multilateralism, it undermines the connectivity. Belt and Road initiative becoming over extended while the sustainability depends upon the China domestic fiscal health. For the endorsement China should must prioritise quality over quantity and environmental safeguards and ensuring that the local communities or not for elites benefit.
China should work on financially viable projects rather than white elephants by focusing on digital infrastructure, climate adaptation, renewable energy and health cooperation. In future belt and road initiative corridors will may emphasize hydro, solar and smart grids. Sustainability will depend on weather all these pledges will transform in actual project pipelines rather than rhetoric based commitments. In future prospects belt and road initiative will remain as major force in global infrastructure especially in Africa and Asia but it’s long term sustainability based on reforms like environmental safeguards , transparent financing , local integration and realistic demand forecasting. By considering these reforms it could evolve in to transformative model of South-South cooperation, by reshaping developmental norms beyond the western led institutions. Otherwise it is considered as a short lived geopolitical gamble rather then the developmental transformative model. Belt and road initiatives future depends upon the transition to inclusive, sustainable and the transparent model of cooperation.
