Indonesia’s population projected to reach 324 million in 2045: Bappenas

Jakarta, The Gulf Observer: Indonesia’s total projected population during the 2020-2050 period under the business-as-usual trend scenario will reach 324 million in 2045, an increase of 54.42 million, National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) Head Suharso Monoarfa stated.

Monoarfa conveyed this at the 2023 National Development Planning Meeting (Musrenbangnas) to prepare the 2024 Government Work Plan (RKP), launch of the Initial Draft of the National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) for 2025-2045, and launch of the 2020-2050 Population Projection at the Assembly Hall, Jakarta Convention Center, Jakarta, on Tuesday.

“Population growth for the 2020-2050 period is on average 0.67 percent (in 2045). Every year, it will continue to decrease. The proportion of the population aged 0-14 years will decrease, from 24.56 percent in 2020 to 19.61 percent in 2045, while the population aged 65 years and over will increase, from 6.16 percent to 14.61 percent in 2045,” he explained.

Along with Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Monoarfa said his side had calculated population projections for the 2020-2050 period with three scenarios.

The first scenario is with the business-as-usual trend without any policies. The result of this scenario is that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), or the average number of children born from a woman during her childbearing or reproductive age, continues to decline to 1.9 points in 2045, accompanied by the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) reaching 7.85 points.

The second scenario is moderate by targeting TFR at 2.0 points, with an IMR value of 5.8 points.

“The last scenario is the optimistic scenario. We will achieve this scenario by targeting a life expectancy of 80 years, which is on par with developed countries. The TFR value is maintained at 2.0 and the infant mortality rate reaches 4.2,” he remarked.

According to Monoarfa, the population structure will experience rapid change. In 2023, India will become the most populous country, overtaking China, which is estimated to have experienced negative population growth since 2021.

Meanwhile, in 2020, Indonesia was still the fourth most populous country in the world, he stated.

However, in 2045, Indonesia’s position will drop to sixth place, as population growth is projected to decrease in the 2030s.

“While the fourth and the fifth position will be occupied by Nigeria and Pakistan,” he remarked.