Kazakhstan Survey Shows Strong Voter Intent Ahead of Qurultay Elections

Astana, The Gulf Observer: A nationwide public opinion survey conducted by the Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development indicates that a clear majority of Kazakhstan’s eligible voters intend to participate in the upcoming Qurultay deputies’ elections scheduled for August 23, 2026, while the Adilet Party enjoys a commanding lead in voter preferences.

The telephone survey, carried out between July 8 and 20, 2026, covered 1,200 respondents across all 17 regions of Kazakhstan, as well as the cities of Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent. The study was based on a nationally representative sample of adults aged 18 and above, reflecting the country’s population by gender, age, settlement type, and region. Interviews were conducted using both mobile and landline telephone numbers.

According to the survey findings, 70.3 percent of respondents said they intend to cast their ballots in the upcoming elections. Meanwhile, 23.3 percent indicated they do not plan to vote, while 6.4 percent remain undecided.

The survey found that voter participation is expected to be strongest among citizens aged 46 to 60, whose willingness to vote is approximately 10 percentage points higher than that of younger respondents aged 18 to 28. Women expressed a greater intention to participate than men by around five percentage points, while respondents with higher or incomplete higher education also demonstrated comparatively higher electoral engagement.

When asked which political party they would support in the elections, the Adilet Party emerged as the clear frontrunner with 64.8 percent support, leading across virtually all social groups and enjoying particularly strong backing among younger voters.

The Auyl Party ranked second with 5.4 percent, drawing stronger support from rural residents, who were approximately 1.5 times more likely to back the party than their urban counterparts.

The Respublica Party and Ak Zhol Party recorded similar levels of support at 4.8 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively. Respublica’s support base is concentrated mainly among young urban men, while Ak Zhol attracts greater support from older rural voters, with balanced backing from both men and women.

The Nationwide Social Democratic Party received 3.3 percent support, with its strongest backing coming from respondents with vocational education. The People’s Party of Kazakhstan secured 3.1 percent, with support concentrated among the youngest and oldest age groups.

Meanwhile, the Baytaq Green Party registered 0.8 percent support, primarily among older rural residents. The survey also found that 2.2 percent of respondents intend to vote “Against all,” while 10.9 percent remain undecided regarding their preferred political party.

The Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development stated that the survey results were published in accordance with the written notification issued by the Central Election Commission (CEC) under reference No. OSK-11-07/1290, dated July 8, 2026.