Uzbekistan to Expand AI-Driven Crackdown on Shadow Economy Under Presidential Directive
Tashkent, The Gulf Observer: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has reviewed a comprehensive package of measures aimed at further reducing Uzbekistan’s shadow economy through digitalization, artificial intelligence, and enhanced prosecutorial oversight, as the country accelerates efforts to improve transparency and increase state revenues.
During a presentation on the government’s anti-shadow economy strategy, officials reported that sustained reforms in recent years have significantly reduced the share of the non-observed economy from 35 percent to 23 percent over the past two years. The measures have generated an additional 38 trillion Uzbek soums (UZS) in state budget revenues, while formal employment has exceeded 8.5 million people and the average official monthly salary has risen to nearly 6.5 million UZS.
The reforms have included the establishment of national and regional commissions to combat the shadow economy, the introduction of risk analysis and segmentation systems within tax and customs authorities, the elimination of legislative loopholes enabling illicit transactions, and stronger incentives for law-abiding businesses.
Despite the progress, the government acknowledged that the shadow economy remains substantial. According to first-quarter estimates, the non-observed economy reached 81.1 trillion UZS in agriculture, 24.5 trillion UZS in trade and services, 23.9 trillion UZS in construction, and 6.7 trillion UZS in industry.
Officials noted that the shadow economy not only reduces government revenues but also distorts fair competition, weakens social protection through informal employment, and limits access to legal guarantees and state support for both businesses and consumers.
Under Uzbekistan’s 2030 development goals, the government aims to halve the size of the shadow economy, increase formal employment to 14 million people, and raise the share of cashless transactions to 75 percent.
As part of this effort, President Mirziyoyev reviewed the capabilities of the newly developed “Shadow Economy Map” digital platform, created by the Prosecutor General’s Office and currently operating in pilot mode.
Powered by artificial intelligence, the platform is designed to identify shadow economy risks, estimate potential budget losses, and detect additional revenue opportunities across 22 key economic sectors, 85 areas, 14 regions, and 208 districts and cities.
The system has been developed with input from specialists in taxation, customs, finance, economics, statistics, econometrics, and probability theory. More than 100 risk assessment indicators have been incorporated, with weighting based on regional characteristics, tax regimes, business turnover, and economic significance.
Integrated with the information systems of 16 ministries and government agencies, the platform processes data in real time and automatically classifies sectors and regions into green, yellow, and red risk categories according to the likelihood of shadow economic activity and potential revenue losses.
The platform can also identify businesses operating without licenses, concealing actual turnover, underreporting employment and payroll, or understating profits and profitability.
During the presentation, officials proposed using the platform to fundamentally modernize prosecutorial oversight by relying on digital analytics rather than manual inspections. The system would enable authorities to allocate resources more effectively, automatically identify high-risk sectors and regions, issue targeted directives to responsible agencies, monitor implementation, and evaluate outcomes.
If violations remain unresolved at the district or city level, cases will automatically be escalated to regional authorities and, if necessary, to the national level. The platform will also help identify root causes of recurring problems and support the development of legislative reforms aimed at improving compliance and increasing budget revenues.
President Mirziyoyev emphasized that reducing the shadow economy should primarily be achieved through digital transformation, improved inter-agency data exchange, reduced human intervention, and well-organized oversight mechanisms.
He instructed relevant authorities to integrate more than 70 government information systems into the platform by October 1, extend its coverage to all regions and sectors, and ensure the system is fully operational before the beginning of next year.
The President also directed officials to strengthen prosecutorial oversight to guarantee equal competitive conditions for all businesses while increasing accountability among government agencies responsible for reducing the scale of the shadow economy.
