Karabakh Updates: Is the announcement of mobilization imminent?
Although relations with Azerbaijan were expected to normalize after Armenia signed the capitulation document as a result of the 44-day Karabakh war, recent events show no hope for that. The subtle point of the matter is the questions about the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is even said that military operations are inevitable.
According to the Azerbaijani military specialist Adalat Verdiyev, the recent intensive violation of the ceasefire from the territories under the control of Russian peacekeeping troops and their inability to fulfill their functional duties in Karabakh deeply concerns the country’s leadership, as well as the public.
In his comments on the issue the expert assessed the possibility of the Azerbaijani side taking any action on mobilization in such a case:
“It is a fact that Armenaian side has always been retaliated by the Azerbaijani army in case of any provocation caused by them. However, given the Armenia’s current military potential, I personally do not expect Azerbaijan to declare any kind of mobilization or martial law. Because the sufficient completion of our army is expressed by high numbers, on the other hand, additional commandos and special forces have been created and the composition of our border troops has been expanded.”
In addition, Adalat Verdiyev also touched on Russia’s attitude to the ongoing processes in Karabakh in case of military operations.
“We should take it for granted that Russia’s attitude towards the processes is negative. However, one thing should not be forgotten that this cannot change anything. Because after the processes that took place in Farrukh, we saw that nothing has changed in spite of Russia’s attitude.”
At the same time, the expert emphasized that it was impossible that Russia would take another step within the terms of the joint statement.
“According to the terms of the signed joint statement, Russia has an alliance agreement with us. In addition, the Turkish factor plays an important role amid the solution of the remaining issues by Azerbaijan itself. On the other hand, the opening of the Zangezur corridor, which will pass through the territory of Armenia and connect Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan, is also in Russia’s direct interests.”
The military expert also commented on the recently circulated information about the possibility that Russia may launch any kind of provocation, such as a rocket attack on official Baku, in order to hinder the ongoing processes in Karabakh.
“There is no question of Russia using any force against Azerbaijan, especially Baku. Because the skies of Baku are protected quite reliably, and on the other hand, neither the Kremlin nor other forces can ignore the statement of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that “Azerbaijan is our red line”. “At the same time, against the backdrop of the fact that Russia’s plans in Ukraine have not been fully implemented, it does not make sense for Russia to act against Azerbaijan and Türkiye, which are among the few countries that are close to it.”
