Adieu 2024: Key Patterns During the First Quarter of the 21st Century
From 2000 to 2024, the world experienced unparalleled situations. As the curtains close the first quarter of the 21st Century, a chain of decisive incidents may lead to this Century’s dominant patterns. History tells us that selecting a path plays a vital role in the success or failure of a journey, and so far, the journey of the 21st Century has not been smooth.
For instance, let us have a bird’s eye view of the 20th Century. Some drastic changes in the first quarter of the 20th had long-lasting impacts on world politics and scientific and technological transformation. 1911, the Xinhai Revolution took place, and China became a republic in 1912. The Imperial rule of the Qing dynasty expanded over two hundred years and ended. It was a multipolar world order with a certain balance of power, and it was shaken by World War 1 (1914-1918). As an offshoot, the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire happened, and the one of long rule comprised of centuries 1285 – 1923 faced decline—meanwhile, the Czar’s powerful rule in Russia was contested, and the Bolsheviks Revolution (1917-1923) took place. In 1919, the unfair treaty of Versailles was signed, which had sown the seeds and proven to be a catalyst of antagonistic politics and exclusive identity formation. Later on, the world experienced its manifestation in the form of radical ideologies like Nazism and Fascism. In the context of scientific and technological transformation, there were two important developments: inventions, the Wright brothers making a successful flying aeroplane, and Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity, which changed the world of science. From the perspective of history, the above-mentioned events of the first twenty-five years became the key causes behind the change in world order from multipolar to bipolar and from bipolar to unipolar world. The USSR’s disintegration was considered the nail in the coffin, and afterwards, the US emerged as a hegemonic power.
Now, let’s look at the main incidents that took place in the first quarter of the 21st Century. For the first time in the United States electoral history, the presidential election 2000 was questioned. The American presidential election was held on November 7, 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush narrowly lost the popular vote to Democrat Al Gore but defeated Gore in the electoral college. The Supreme Court made the final decision.
In 2001, 9/11 took place, and in the aftermath, on October 7, 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan. In December of the same year, China was a member of the WTO. In 2003 US, invasion of Iraq. Later on, the Arab Spring, a wave of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that took place in the Middle East and North Africa beginning in 2010 and 2011, the Jasmine Revolution (Tunisia), the Egypt Uprising of 2011, the Yemen Uprising of 2011–12, the Libya Revolt of 2011, Syrian Civil War and Libyan civil war 2011. In 2023, the Israel–Hamas war had intensified, and the sapiens witnessed unprecedented homicide and the worst human rights violations. The year 2024 can marked as the year of change of Regime. In Bangladesh, the Quota Reform movement, which students dominate, brings change, also called the Student Revolution. The next event is Donald Trump’s rise against the US deep state. The dynastic monarchy, for more than five decades, was uprooted due to immense poverty, massive corruption, and political chaos, which seems to be the end of pan-Arabism ideology.
Regarding technological development and the beginning of social and digital media, the first quarter of the 21st Century is very important. In 2003, skype was started; in 2004, Facebook was launched; YouTube in 2005; Twitter in 2006; WhatsApp in 2009; Instagram in 2010; Snapchat in 2011; TikTok in 2016; and lastly, the ground-breaking development in the field of AI. In his book World Order, Henry Kissinger wrote, “Will mankind, amidst weapons of mass destruction, networked transparency, and the absence of privacy, propel itself into a world without limits or order, careening through crises without comprehending them?”
In 2019, the world faced the herculean challenge known as COVID-19. The pandemic has transformed society and the global landscape. It represents a stark contrast to the pre-pandemic era, leading to a synthesis across political, social, technological, and ecological domains.
The last two decades have been important because environmental change poses an existential threat directly connected to economic stability. Environmental challenges transcend political systems, faiths, and national boundaries, lacking immediate solutions—thus requiring preventive strategies through adaptive climate policies. Ilhan Niaz, in his book DOWNFALL Lessons for Our Final Century argued, “There is still time to mend our wicked ways and make better and wiser decisions and meet the challenge of the environmental crisis. It is also important to bear in mind that if humans cannot learn from history even now, then by 2100, there probably will not be anyone left to repeat it. “
In the 21st Century, the world order is changing, which is an important fact. If we apply the lens to the Cold War, block system, and bipolarity, the outcome would be erroneous. Here, change means there is no defined doctrine. Conversely, a significant chunk is still in the prisons of the Cold War. In the history of the Cold War, it has been just a phase comprising around five decades. Multipolarity is a common world order where the world has some competing powers. For example, in COVID-19, significant nations, particularly the USA, failed to leverage their influence through COVID-19 diplomacy. Conversely, China’s standing grew throughout the pandemic, bolstered by its political influence and financial resources, exemplified by its distribution of Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, and it indicated the possibility of dominance and rise of China. Further, the shifting in the balance of power defined world politics, meaning the alliances are not permanent. Internal weakness would lead to economic dependency, e.g., FATF, IMF, and an internally strong country can pursue her interests more efficiently. In simple terms, there is no “either” and “or” in foreign policy and regional politics.
